Each week, ESPN updates Wisconsin’s winning predictions for future encounters. How did an upset loss to Washington State affect predictions?
The network uses FPI as a model each preseason to predict winning percentages for each college football game as well as data on a team’s likelihood of making the playoffs or winning the national championship.
It’s no surprise that Wisconsin is heavily favored against New Mexico State this weekend, but what are the winning predictions when Big Ten play begins? Here’s a look at ESPN FPI’s winning probability predictions for each game still on Badger’s schedule:
September 17 against the state of New Mexico
09/10/2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers tight end Jack Eschenbach (82) rushes with the football in the third quarter against the Washington State Cougars at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 98.5%
September 24 in the state of Ohio
Ohio State Buckeyes defenseman Zach Harrison (33) runs onto the field with the Buckeyes as they play on Saturday April 28, 2019 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 6.5%
October 1 vs. Illinois
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – NOVEMBER 6: Head coach Bret Bielema of the Illinois Fighting Illinois looks on prior to the start of the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium on November 6, 2021 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 72.3%
October 8 in the Northwest
09/03/2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) celebrates after a touchdown in the third quarter against the Illinois State Redbirds at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 74.3%
October 15 in the state of Michigan
Dec 30, 2021; Atlanta, GA, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Payton Thorne (10) celebrates after beating the Pittsburgh Panthers in the second half during the 2021 Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 23.9%
October 22 against Purdue
10/23/2021; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers tight end Payne Durham (87) catches a pass for a touchdown during the game at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 55%
November 5 against Maryland
Dec 29, 2021; New York, New York, United States; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3) runs the ball while Virginia Tech pursues Hokies linebacker Dax Hollifield (4) during the second half of the 2021 Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 56.7%
November 12 in Iowa
09/03/2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) throws a pass while warming up before the game against the Illinois State Redbirds at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 57.7%
November 19 in Nebraska
09/03/2022; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Casey Thompson (11) plays against the North Dakota Fighting Hawks in the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 60.1%
November 26 vs. Minnesota
Dec 28, 2021; Phoenix, Arizona, United States; Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Tanner Morgan (2) against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 52%
