Oddsmakers recently released the 2022 overall wins for each team in the Power Five. For better or worse, the Pac-12 has been given plenty of room for positive surprises.
Only five teams in the conference received an OVER/UNDER grand total that would result in a winning record if the high side were met.
We suspect the depth will prove better than expected, but the cynicism is not undue given the Pac-12’s overall performance over the past year and the relative scarcity of cupcake opponents on non-conference schedules.
UCLA is a firm favorite when it comes to sweeping their non-conference schedule, but the Bruins are all alone in that regard.
Our assessment is below…
Remarks:
• Totals published by FanDuel are for regular season games only.
•Teams listed in order of expected totals (and then alphabetically)
U.S.C
Probable overall victory: 9.5
Home games (seven): Rice, Fresno State, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Washington State, Cal, Colorado
Road Games (five): Stanford, Oregon State, Utah, Arizona, UCLA
Our pick: UNDER 9.5
Commentary: The Trojans have the talent and schedule (no Oregon, no Washington) to go into double digits, but is that the more likely outcome? From our point of view not. There are too many unknowns on the defensive line and on the secondary side – the units crucial to coming off the field third in the fourth quarter of tight games.
Oregon
Probable overall victory: 8.5
Home games (six): BYU, Eastern Washington, Stanford, UCLA, Washington, Utah
Road/Neutral Games (six): Georgia (neutral), Washington State, Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon State
Our pick: UNDER 8.5
Commentary: The source of our skepticism is a combination of Georgia and the Ducks’ home program, which is fraught with challenges (BYU is certainly no gimme; neither is Stanford the story of this series). That double whammy serves to reduce Oregon’s margin for error in the conference’s five road games.
UCLA
Probable overall victory: 8.5
Home games (eight): Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama, Washington, Utah, Stanford, Arizona, USC
Road Games (four): Colorado, Oregon, Arizona State, Cal
Our pick: OVER 8.5
Comment: There is no friendlier schedule anywhere. The Bruins have eight home games and the softest non-conference lineup imaginable. (Not entirely their fault: Michigan canceled a series.) We can’t help but wonder: Will missing WSU and OSU work in UCLA’s favor while they play Washington and Oregon?
Utah
Probable overall victory: 8.5
Home games (six): Southern Utah, San Diego State, Oregon State, USC, Arizona, Stanford
Road Games (six): Florida, Arizona State, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Colorado
Our pick: OVER 8.5
Commentary: The Hotline believes Utah will win the Week 1 showdown at The Swamp and follow up with victories over southern Utah and San Diego State to secure a 3-0 record out of conference. From there, it would only take the Utes six Pac-12 wins to make the OVER. That shouldn’t be a problem.
Washington
Probable overall victory: 7.5
Home games (seven): Kent State, Portland State, Michigan State, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado
Street Games (five): UCLA, Arizona State, Cal, Oregon, Washington State
Our pick: UNDER 7.5
Commentary: So many winnable home games and yet we are skeptical that UW can achieve the trifecta required to reach the eight-win mark. The Huskies must 1) win the home games they are expected to win and 2) beat Michigan State and win one away game, or 3) win two away games. In all honesty, all three scenarios seem tense.
State of Arizona
Estimated overall victory: 5.5
Home games (six): NAU, Eastern Michigan, Utah, Washington, UCLA, Oregon State
Road Games (six): Oklahoma State, Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona
Our pick: OVER 5.5
Commentary: The bill is cheaper than all the personnel changes would suggest. With NAU and EMU on the schedule, the Sun Devils need four conference wins to make the OVER. (We assume a loss in the state of Oklahoma). Combine Washington and OSU at home with Colorado, Stanford and Arizona on the road and it’s awfully close.
cal
Estimated overall victory: 5.5
Home games (seven): UC Davis, UNLV, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA
Road Games (five): Notre Dame, Washington State, Colorado, USC, Oregon State
Our pick: OVER 5.5
Commentary: Here’s a case where the cross-discipline schedule dictates our take on overall wins. The Bears are missing out on Utah and Arizona State, instead hitting Arizona at home and Colorado on the road. We count both as wins. Add UC Davis and UNLV for four wins and Cal would only need two of the remaining eight.
Oregon State
Estimated overall victory: 5.5
Home games (seven): Boise State, Montana State, USC, Washington State, Colorado, Cal, Oregon
Road Games (five): Fresno State, Utah, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona State
Our pick: OVER 5.5
Commentary: It all depends on the Boise State and Fresno State games — the Beavers need to earn at least one split to hit the OVER (and qualify for the bowl). When they get carried away by the Mountain West tandem, the road to six wins becomes extremely difficult. Easy to imagine that both games are questionable in the last few minutes.
Washington
Estimated overall victory: 5.5
Home games (seven): Idaho, Colorado State, Oregon, Cal, Utah, Arizona State, Washington
Road Games (five): Wisconsin, USC, Oregon State, Stanford, Arizona
Our pick: OVER 5.5
Commentary: The Cougars clearing their victory bar is considered one of the best bets on the Pac-12 board. They have an experienced team that is starting a top-notch quarterback, playing seven home games and should win two non-conference matchups (Colorado State was 3-9 last year). And the WSU only has to finish .500 for the OVER? Yes, please.
Stanford
Probable overall victory: 4.5
Home games (six): Colgate, BYU, USC, Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington State
Street Games (six): Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Cal, UCLA
Our pick: UNDER 4.5
Commentary: Unlike Cal, the Cardinal draws Utah, faces a more challenging non-conference lineup (thanks to BYU) and plays a brutal road plan. Stanford will only be a clear favorite once (Colgate) and often a clear underdog. Granted, the 4.5 win bar is a lot easier to erase than 5.5, but we don’t see that.
Colorado
Estimated Total Win: 3.5
Home games (six): TCU, UCLA, Cal, Arizona State, Oregon, Utah
Road Games (six): Air Force, Minnesota, Arizona, Oregon State, USC, Washington
Our pick: UNDER 3.5
Commentary: We’re suspicious of CU’s total for one reason – actually three reasons: TCU, Air Force, and Minnesota. The Buffaloes face the distinct possibility of a 2-1 record outside of conference play (and with a better chance of 3-0 than 2-1). From there, consider the conference lineup: are there three wins? Not without a lot of excitement.
Arizona
Probable overall victory: 2.5
Home games (seven): Mississippi State, North Dakota State, Colorado, USC, Oregon, WSU, ASU
Road games (five): San Diego State, Cal, Washington, Utah, UCLA
Our pick: OVER 2.5
Commentary: We expect the Wildcats to improve significantly, but that might not result in a flurry of wins – not with a non-conference schedule that’s all meat, no cupcakes. Had the odds makers put Arizona’s total at 3.5, UNDER would be quite tempting. But the Wildcats should have three wins, if not four or five.
