Action Network analyst Joe Dellera offers odds, preview and prediction for the NBA match between the Hawks and the Pistons.
Hawks vs Pistons Odds
|over under||229 (-110 / -110)|
|time||7 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|odds over fan duel. Stay up to date NBA odds here.|
The Atlanta Hawks travel to the Motor City to take on the Detroit Pistons, who will play their second game in as many days.
Can Trae Young and Dejounte Murray’s dynamic Hawks backcourt make for a young Pistons team?
Let’s break it down.
Hawks’ backcourt dominates
The Hawks made waves this offseason as they traded a plethora of picks to the San Antonio Spurs in a bid to land rising star Murray in the pairing with Young. They hoped they could become one of the league’s most explosive offenses.
Instead, they score a meager 108.2 points per 100 possessions and struggle to defeat the Rockets and Magic. They also fell to the Hornets on Sunday, who missed their best scoring chances in Terry Rozier and LaMelo Ball.
A problem for the Hawks is that Murray helped secure the perimeter defense. He’s an excellent defender and when you pair him with De’Andre Hunter on the touchline, his length creates a number of difficulties for opponents while masking some of Young’s defensive inefficiencies.
They essentially swapped all of their offensive bench players for stronger defensive players.
And with Clint Capela and Okongwu Okongwu on the inside, it’s no surprise they only allow 107.9 points per 100 possessions on defense.
Getting back to offense, however, it’s hard to say that we should expect a positive regression for the Hawks. While their actual eFG percentage is only 50.2%, their expected eFG percentage is 52.4% – both brands are ranked 25th in the league.
However, one cure for a poor start to the season is a team that has the third worst expected allowable eFG%.
But alongside a good matchup against a relatively weak Detroit defense, a real shot profile perspective is a breakdown of what this offense actually does.
The Hawks perform a lot of two-guard action with Young and Murray, varying in complexity between curl cuts, offset screens and horns.
Action #3: HORNS
No diagram has been included here as there are a lot of variations in this series. The key here is that you have a ball handler on top of the key + two players parked at elbows.
But yet another opportunity to include both guards in a dynamic sequence. pic.twitter.com/9SvQGhuHOu
— Mat Issa (@matissa15) October 24, 2022
This is explained in detail by Mat Issa, but in a nutshell to optimize both trae and dejounte, the offense needs to be complicated to give them the same opportunities to ride downhill so they can ride, score and moderate.
That puts a huge strain on the defense.
With that in mind, these two should be able to make short work of this inexperienced Piston’s backcourt.
sky is the limit for pistons?
The Pistons are playing their second game in as many days and have just had to travel back to Detroit from Washington DC.
Alec Burks and Marvin Bagley III both missed time and either of them are unlikely to feature in this game, affecting their lead and depth as a veteran.
The Pistons have been gaining momentum ahead of the season as a “dark horse team” that could surprise and potentially compete for the play-in thanks to its talented young core.
They handled business against the Magic on opening night but have since lost to the Knicks and Pacers.
Their young core of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren can only be deterred by how many minutes Dwane Casey continues to devote to Killian Hayes.
But seriously, the sky is the limit for this talented young squad.
However, they have a lot to improve at the moment – namely their defence Rough.
As of this writing, the Pistons are allowing an eFG% of 56.0%, the third-worst in the league. Her opponents get to the edge with ease, and her 8th worst defensive rebound percentage compounds that flaw.
Opponents get multiple shots at the basket from high-percentage areas.
Hawks Pistons Pick
This is the first game in a miniseries for the Hawks and Pistons, who will repeat this encounter on Friday.
This is one point where I will support the Hawks.
They have superior offense led by Young and Murray who will use their playing skills to dominate this game and control the tempo. Additionally, their improved defense will force turnovers and disrupt the Pistons’ fledgling offense.
Place the points and take out the Hawks.
Choose: Hawks -7 (Click here to seamlessly add this selection to your betslip with QuickSlip!)