NBA Best Bets: Plays and Analysis for Friday, November 25th

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All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page

Market report for Friday November 25th

*Indicates the team is in the second leg of a tackle

**Lines are opening numbers

best bets

Record: 17-26 | Units: -9.49| Yield: -23.08%

Minnesota is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS in its last five games with a net rating of +11.4 in non-garbage time. It’s been a relatively soft schedule, but the Timberwolves have taken advantage of it and are showing there is a gap between them and the smaller teams in the league. Tonight they get Charlotte, who picked up a win against Philadelphia and has covered her last two games. LaMelo Ball remains sidelined and Gordon Hayward is a question since he sustained a shoulder bruise in the win over the 76ers.

The game here will be back in Minnesota. Defensively, the Timberwolves have finally started to get going. Opponents have only managed 105.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time during this winning streak, and their perimeter defense will go a long way against the Hornets here. Charlotte is the worst offensive player in the league at 106.6 points per 100 possessions, but when she succeeds it’s with dribbling penetration and drive-and-kick opportunities. They take 38.4% of their shots to the rim and shoot a pretty decent 64.1% on those attempts while generating 22.6 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts per game. Minnesota ranks 10th in enemy rim frequency (33.0%) and third in enemy rim shooting (61.7%). The Timberwolves also bring the league’s 10th-best transition defense, which will come in handy against live rebounds against a team that will try to run if they can.

What will kill the Timberwolves if they don’t manage to cover will be their turnovers. They turn the ball over at 16.5% of their offensive ownership, the eighth-highest rate in the league, and the Hornets have the tenth-highest offensive transition-off steal rating (142.2). However, the pros outweigh the cons here and I think the market is still a bit low on that number and there is some agreement with me as that number is as low as -5 in a number of stores.

Playing: Timberwolves (-4.5)

Summary of the best bets

Timberwolves (-4.5)

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