Free NBA Betting Tips – Today’s Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (11/25/22)

Wednesday’s games were a lot of fun, but I took a few “Ls” as the Kings and Pacers let me down and the Sixers-Hornets game wasn’t able to provide enough offense. If it wasn’t for the player props, which worked really well, I would have had a really rough night.

Speaking of props, if you’re looking for NBA player props, consider subscribing to my sportsbook substack here, as I also have something out every night Monday through Friday. Tonight the NBA is back with another massive list (13 games) giving us plenty of solid betting opportunities.

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Thunder Dan’s NBA best bets

  • 2022-2023 Overall Record: 43-43
  • Against the spread: 19-21
  • Game/Team Total: 7-10
  • Money Line Game: 5-10
  • Teasers: 12-2

NBA Betting Tips: Against the Spread

New Orleans Pelicans (+2) @ Memphis Grizzlies (229.5 overall)

Let’s start with an underdog, why not? The Pelicans will be without CJ McCollum again tonight, but I’m not sure if that’s a loss enough to stop me from picking them here. They have a very competent replacement in Jose Alvarado who actually bolsters their defense a bit, even if he’s not the goalscorer that CJM is.

The Grizzlies are still without Desmond Bane, and he’s a bigger part of this team’s success than most people probably realize. Yes, Morant is the engine that powers the Memphis locomotive, and Jaren Jackson Jr. has been solid since his return, but Memphis is having a hard time filling the void Bane left on the wing, as Dillon Brooks is basically just is a goalscorer and nowhere near the defender that Bane is.

The Pelicans are just a really scrappy team, I like the way they strive for it. They remind me a lot of Memphis in that they have good depth off the bench and a balanced approach focused on team basketball. New Orleans has been better overall this year, although it’s hard to judge how good Memphis could be if they’re fully healthy. In a game that’s basically a coin toss, I take the better odds on the underdog, so please give me the pels on the money line!

The choice: NOP ML (+120 DK)

Denver Nuggets (-3.5) @ LA Clippers (219 total)

I really don’t want to trust Denver here but Nikola Jokic is likely and they should also bring back Jamal Murray and maybe MPJ (currently a question mark) for those tonight. Bones Hyland is still out, but with Denver at least near full strength, it’s hard to imagine they couldn’t handle a Clippers team without PG13 and Kawhi Leonard, right?

The Nuggets have been a difficult team to handicap this year. We all know they have a lot of talent but so far this year they have lost to some underdog teams and then turned around and beat a lot of good teams too. They’re clearly not firing on all cylinders just yet and are struggling with injuries. But Jokic has been outstanding in both of his games since returning to the line-up and I can’t see how the Clippers can stop him in this one.

Denver just has so many good matchups in this game. Jamal Murray vs Reggie Jackson = Advantage Denver. Aaron Gordon vs. Marcus Morris – Advantage Denver. Even the bench unit should be stronger despite losing Hyland because Bruce Brown is playing a great ball right now. On a night with a number of difficult games to predict, I’m counting on Jokic and the gang to hit a big win here. Fingers crossed that Denver doesn’t let us down!

The choice: DEN -3.5 (-110 DK)

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NBA Betting Tips: Totals

Brooklyn Nets (-2.5) @ Indiana Pacers (234 overall)

The Nets and Pacers will face off for the third time this year after splitting the first two meetings. The first game went beyond that total, finishing with 241, while their second clash (just days later) went down with just 225 total points.

The model is screaming UNDER here and the reason is probably this. In their last ten games, the Pacers have the third-best defensive rating in the league. Combine that with a Brooklyn team that has the 10th best defense over the last 10 and we have an opportunity here to jump on a trend reversal. While both teams played poorly on defense early in the season, they have improved a lot and neither team has been strong enough on offense to overcome this. I have forecast this total to be around 225 and want to bet it aggressively this morning as I think it will fall later in the day as the market corrects itself.

The choice: UNDER 234 (-110 DK)

Sacramento Kings (+8) @ Boston Celtics (237.5 overall)

We’ve got the perfect storm brewing for a lot of points in this one. Boston has been one of the best teams in the league so far this year, especially on offense, where their 118.8 offensive rating ranks first in the NBA overall. Guess who’s second in the league in offense? That’s right – your Sacramento Kings! So here we have the two best offenses in the league in a game of above-average pace (around 102 possessions, I’d predict).

I don’t usually like to bet under on already big numbers or on abnormally low sums, but I don’t think we can live and die with that strategy either. This game has the potential to break out for a massive total tonight and I’m happy to grab it at 237.5 and fairly confident that we’ll see it trend towards 240 as the day progresses.

I wish I could say I like it when the Kings cover, too, but they burned me on Monday, and Boston is so good when they’re in their game. However, I think they will fight and keep this game competitive until the end, which I think also bodes well for the ending.

The choice: ABOVE 237.5 (-110 DK)

NBA Betting Tips: Parlays and Teasers

I usually make a money line favorite bet on bigger boards and then also a teaser bet (usually lots of underdogs but not always).

Just know the risks involved in parlaying bets. We increase our potential payouts, but add more risk to every bet with every outcome we include.

Favorite Moneyline Game: Atlanta + Minnesota + Phoenix = (+124 DraftKings)

4.5 points underdog teaser: PHILLY +7, PORTLAND +9, NOP +7 = (+150 DraftKings)

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