Fantasy football managers have it good when it comes to quarterback position. You know this is a fact when the back-to-back NFL MVP isn’t considered a consensus top 10 option.
So what to do when there are too many good players in the same position? The same is true when there aren’t enough good players in the same position – you need to differentiate them to find the little perks and advantages that will help you build your confidence in them.
The perk I like to work with the most concerns the matchups. If I knew which quarterbacks had better plans this year, I would hunt them down before those with neutral or bad plans.
So that’s what I tried here. I graded each defense, including each pass coverage unit and each pass rush unit, to compile a Projected Strength of Schedule (PSoS) for each team’s quarterbacks. It took a lot of time and learning, and while I know it won’t be a perfect result (injuries and other unpredictable things affect defense, of course), it should still guide me on draft day.
I will use this information to help sort all starting caliber quarterbacks into drafts. In particular, it will act as a sort of tie-breaker between two quarterbacks that I ranked about. The PSoS should also help me find streamable quarterbacks and maybe even some sleepers.
Seasonal PSoS for QBs
Weeks 1-4 PSoS for QBs
Weeks 15-17 PSoS for QBs
Jalen hurts: I’m not the biggest fan of Hurt’s arm talent, but even I can’t overlook his schedule. The Eagles are in great position with their toughest matchups of the year against the Saints, Packers, Steelers and Cowboys. Realistically, it is. With AJ Brown and his sophomore DeVonta Smith (also benefiting from those matchups), there should be one some Increased efficiency for Hurts.
Trey Lance: It’s not a lockdown that Lance will start Week 1 for the 49ers, but things certainly appear to be looking that way. If that’s the case, the inexperienced second grader is presented with the simplest predicted schedule for the entire season and, just to be safe, a top 5 list at the start of the season. Deploy his frenzied skill and Lance has a little more potential than we give him credit for.
Matthew Ryan: The former Falcon begins his tenure with the AFC South with divisional matchups in five of his first seven games. The whole schedule is actually good for Ryan. Keep this in mind if you are streaming early in the year or looking for a Sleeper QB2 in Superflex/Two QB designs.
Joe Burrow: While casual gamers might be racing for Burrow’s draft given his demise last year, there are some pretty worrying numbers that have me nervous. Put its PSoS on the list of concerns — no team has a worse quarterback schedule than the Bengals, and they’re in the bottom 8 in preseason and postseason PSoS. While I still consider Burrow a top 12 fantasy passers, he fell behind a few other quarterbacks in part because of his schedule.
Deshaun Watson: The Browns pulled the third-worst projected schedule for the entire season, much of it in a difficult division (Baltimore and Pittsburgh also didn’t fare well). However, the early part of their schedule is pretty nice. If Watson is not suspended he will enjoy these games; If he’s suspended, he’ll miss her and deal with the jaws of her bad PSoS grade. After not playing football last year and settling into a new offense with a different receiving corps, I don’t think giving Watson the leap of faith is a good idea.
Tua Tagovailoa: The third year passer gets Tyreek Hill, but also gets a bottom 5 year predicted schedule, complete with a bottom 6 season PSoS. One of the reasons Tagovailoa rarely attempted deep throws last year was because his O-line didn’t give him time to throw. The same problem is on the table in 2022.
Tom Brady: Here’s an example of using the PSoS information to help you create a tiebreaker. Pretty much everyone is past the point of doubting Brady in Fantasy, but there’s no denying that there’s a tough schedule. If it turns out that Chris Godwin isn’t ready for the start of the year and that Rob Gronkowski isn’t coming back and that the Buccaneers offensive line isn’t patched like last year, the second-worst preseason combined with an overall bottom-10 outlook isn’t going to help Brady , to achieve another great season.
Two to stream early
(These quarterbacks have some light PSoS in the preseason, but their schedule gets harder starting in October.)
- James Winston
- whoever the Browns quarterback is
Stream two later
(These quarterbacks have tough PSoS early in the season, but their schedule improves dramatically starting in October.)
- Kirk cousins
- Trevor Lawrence