College Football Week 4: Best Bets | NFL and NCAA betting tips

BET Miami (OH) +7.5 in the Northwest (-110 BetMGM): PFF fair line is 6.6 — GSetting the key number of 7 on the side is tremendous.

BET: Central Michigan-Penn State U 63.5 (-110 BetMGM): PFF Greenline has the total at 61.7.

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We highlighted three bets in Week 3 of college football that went 2-1 after the recommended bet on Under 58.5 finished 61 at Purdue-Syracuse after a 42-point quarter. A 28-point fourth quarter in Clemson and Louisiana Tech also slipped under, but Cal +10.5 was a relatively sweat-free win after the Golden Bears took an early touchdown lead and eventually lost by 7.

The overall record of this weekly preview is 2-3 for minus 1.18 units. A hot phase begins this week.

best bid: Miami (Ohio) +7.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Northwestern lost straight in back-to-back home games as a 10-point and 13.5-point favorite: And now the Wildcats are 7.5-point favorites against a Miami, Ohio team who have come to play football so far this season. The schedule has been tough for the underdog Redhawks, who performed well against teams better than Northwestern on the road against Kentucky as a 15-point dog — bet of 20 — and at home against Cincinnati with 24 points. Miami put the Bearcats on alert midway through the second quarter with a 10-point lead, but as in the case of Kentucky, the second-half performance didn’t match the first.

Northwestern will not be blowing out any teams this season: So if Miami’s first-half performance is as good as it has been in previous games, it will stay that close, making Northwestern unlikely to pull away late.

• It’s important for Miami, Ohio bettors to get the key number of seven aside as PFF has that fair line at 6.6.

best bid: Miami (Ohio) +7.5

best bid: Below 63.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Central Michigan’s point totals are misleading: In three games they do not tell how this offense developed. In Quarters 1-3, Central Michigan posted an offensive EPA of -0.091 per game, and in the fourth, when games were out of range and teams start bringing in backups, that increases significantly to +0.406 per game. Even against little Bucknell, a 41-point favorite, Central Michigan only led 7-0 midway through the third quarter.

Penn State’s No. 2 defense is better than many teams’ starters: So going into Beaver Stadium, that kind of offensive efficiency isn’t going to get Central Michigan very far. The Nittany Lions take their foot off the gas as soon as they’re out of sight — a fourth-quarter touchdown against Ohio and Auburn by 30 points. This, coupled with Central Michigan’s lack of offense early in games, makes that total seem high in the mid-’60s.

• Greenline has this line at 61.7.

best bid: Below 63.5

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