College Football Bottom 10 – Tabs who will be #1 in 2022

Inspirational thought of the week:

“I know where I would go.”
“Where?”
“I would go to Akron. I would go there with a pretty woman. A strange woman. A calm woman. I wouldn’t even want to know her name. Where I just say ‘Mr. Smith’ would be and I would send for a cold beer. Then I would tell her things. Things I’ve never told anyone before. Things locked deep here. And as I speak to her, I want her to reach out a gentle hand and say, ‘Poor thing. Poor, poor thing.'”
“How long do you want this to go on, Doctor?”
“Two weeks.”
“Two weeks? Isn’t that getting a bit monotonous? Just Akron, cold beer and ‘poor thing’ for two weeks?”
“No, it would be wonderful.”

— Cecil Kellaway and Jimmy Stewart as Dr. Chumley and Elwood P. Dowd in “Harvey”

Here at Bottom 10 headquarters, in the room with filing cabinets where Deion Sanders keeps all the Power 5 job offers he wants us to know about but won’t take, we’ve been thrown off our common axis. Our schedule is uglier and more disassembled than a Pontiac Aztek. Our calendar has been erased more times than someone trying to use an Etch A Sketch in a centrifuge. What we’re saying is that our normal routine was ruined at the end of the regular season. Instead of the usual gathering of our Top 10 selection committee at the DFW Hacienda Courts, our annual gathering of college football minds like Jerry Glanville, Charlie Weis and Ed “Straight Arrow” Gennero, we told them all to stay home.

Why? The season is not over yet. No, none of our teams suddenly received an invite to a conference championship game. The problem is that two weekends ago a snow mountain prevented one of our competitors from playing their last game and now we have to wait and see what happens.

Damn Akron.

So instead of holding our normal fake CFP committee vote, we went all the old school and are employing an old school fake BCS approach instead. Yes, we do the math. But instead of relying on the magically accurate ESPN FPI – the Football Power Index – we’ve conjured up the top 10 FPI – the Faux Pas Index.

It’s really easy. And by simple we mean totally nested. Teams receive one point for each win, minus one point for each loss, minus one point for each loss in their longest losing streak of the year, plus a minus 10 bonus if that losing streak is currently active. We also subtract the number of points they gave up from the number of points they scored, subtract or add points based on turnover margin, and throw in a 50-point deduction if they lost their head coach this season, aka Randy Edsall Fired, fired Coach Bonus. Divide that by the number of games played – let’s call this the Akron Principle – and you get your bottom 10 FPI score.

So come on down, let’s do some math. Math, math, math, math, math.

With apologies to Dewey Finn, Euclid, former Michigan State Spartan Addie Gaddis and Steve Harvey, here’s the definitive (sort of) 2022 Bottom 10 rankings.

1. Colora-duh (1-11)

Wins: +1
Losses: -11
Longest losing streak: -6 (currently -10)
185 points for, 534 points against: -349
Sales margin: -12 (shared with Akron for fourth worst place in FBS)
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: -50
In total: -437
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -36.42

While the buffs wait to be rejected by Deion, they can at least spend that time celebrating a championship. We knew 2022 had been total chaos, but when we pushed it through the numerical cheese grater of the Bottom 10 FPI formula, Colorado became the college football equivalent of Jared Leto’s “Morbius.” We were pretty sure it was going to be bad. We never thought it would be so awful.

play

1:36

Keyshawn Johnson explains why Deion Sanders would be a great fit as Colorado head coach.

2. UMess (1-11)

Wins: +1
Losses: -11
Longest losing streak: -9 (currently -10)
150 points for, 373 points against: -223
Sales margin: -3
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N / A
Score: -255
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 FPI: -21.25

The Minutemen ended the year by losing back-to-back pillow fights of the week against Arkansaw State and Texas A&M, and in late November suffered their worst loss to the Army since Allied forces crossed the Siegfried Line.

3. US(nonC)F (1-11)

Wins: +1
Losses: -11
Longest losing streak: -10 (currently -10)
336 points for, 494 points against: -158
Sales margin: -4
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: -50
In total: -242
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 FPI: -20.17

The Bulls ended the season with college football’s second-longest active losing streak, a streak that saw L suffer at the hands of a TU and UT, another Bottom 10 resident Temple and reigning Myrtle Beach Bowl champion Tulsa, who just fired his head coach.

4. North through Northworstern (1-11)

Wins: +1
Losses: -11
Longest losing streak: -11 (currently -10)
165 points for, 340 points against: -175
Sales margin: -19 (worst in FBS)
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N / A
In total: -225
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 FPI: -18.75

In case you were wondering who in the world could have lost more consecutive games than USF 10 in a row, allow us to show you beautiful Evanston, Illinois.

5. Give me freedom or give me death…

in the hands of the other Aggies! The Flames land in the coveted fifth spot after bursting into flames at the end of an otherwise heavenly 8-4 season with a stunning 49-14 loss to natural geographic rivals New Mexico State, a game that saw the other FPI said Liberty had a 95.7% chance of winning. I can imagine it was hard for Hugh Freeze to keep both eyes on the playbook while casually scrolling through WarDamnEagleHousesForSale.com.

6. Huh-why-yuh (3-10)

Wins: +3
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -4
257 points for, 451 points against: -194
Sales margin: -8th
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N / A
In total: -213
Games played: 13
Final Bottom 10 FPI: -16.38

Akron may have played too few games, but the Warriors have played too many as they have the only bottom 10 FPI that was divisible by an unlucky 13. In fairness, Timmy Chang’s team has improved dramatically as a season that began with first/worst early and often pre-plowed further. In fact, the island of Oahu was so irritated by the end of the season that Mauna Loa erupted for the first time in nearly 40 years.

7. Charlotte 3-and-9s (3-9)

Wins: +3
Losses: -9
Longest losing streak: -4
294 points for, 473 points against: -180
Sales margin: -8th
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: -50
In total: -248
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 FPI: -20.67

Speaking of eruptions, I’m already gearing up for my next visit to my local grocery store here at my home in Charlotte, where the boy who calls me always gets me in overdrive when I have his Niners in this ranking. I already know what he will say first. “But we ended the season with a win over Louisiana Tech and they’re also 3-9, so why aren’t they in the bottom 10 instead of us?!” I’ll let him know it wasn’t even close when we the 3-and-9ers performed against Lose-ee-anna Tech in the computer. Charlotte has nearly doubled Louisiana Tech’s FPI from minus 10.67 thanks to a much larger pro/con margin score, revenue margin, and dismissed coach bonus. I already know what he’s going to say next. “Dude, what about your groceries? You eat like an eight year old.”

8. Acronmonius (2-9)

Wins: +2
Losses: -9
Longest losing streak: -9
239 points for, 379 points against: -140
Sales margin: -11
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N / A
In total: -167
Games played: 11
Final Bottom 10 FPI: -15.18

In case you were wondering, yes, the Zips just won their second game of the year, against another #MACtion Bottom 10 contender in Northern Ill-ugh-noise. But as you know from the weekly CFP leaderboard announcement shows, this is all about “work” and Akron’s anatomy is Thor in Avengers: Endgame. NIU’s bottom 10 FPI is at minus 6.08, just over a third of Zip’s, which is 15.18 below Zip. Speaking of which, in case you’re wondering and talking about numbers starting with 15, Akron has a 15.4% chance of winning his do-over Friday night in Buffalo. But that’s FPI, according to ESPN, and now that we’ve seen how easy it is to come up with an FPI formula, we’re not sure we trust it anymore.

9. Phew Mexico No-Bos (2-10)

Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -9 (currently -10)
157 points for, 312 points against: -155
Sales margin: +4
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N / A
In total: -178
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 FPI: -14.83

The No-Bos ended the year by giving former top/bottom team Colora-duh State the win they needed to break over the wall and out of the Bottom 10’s prison yard. So why aren’t they ranked higher/lower than them? Look at this sales range. Wow, Mexico ranks 38th in all FBS, tied with cities like Cincinnati and Washington State. Come on guys are you trying to win this thing aren’t you?

10. Novada (2-10)

Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -10 (currently -10)
226 points for, 371 points against: -145
Sales margin: +2
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N / A
In total: -171
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 FPI: -14.25

The race for that last spot was closer than a pair of Underoos washed in too hot water, but the Oof Pack edged out the rest of the, uh, pack through the nation’s other second-longest losing streak. The difference between Whew Mexico and its Mountain West counterparts in Reno is thinner than the gravy on the $3 meatloaf in downtown Reno. They shared seven common opponents and while New Mexico lost to all seven, Nevada beat Liberty destroyer Whew Mexico State in Week 1.

waiting list: Temple of Doom, Arkansaw State, Colora-duh State, Lose-ee-anna Tech, Old Duh-minions, Northern Ill-ugh-noise, Stampford, Virginia Tech No-kies, In A Rut-gers, #goBCc, Arizona Skate , the end of the regular season… boo.

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