The bar for a great QB season in fantasy is higher than ever these days, and that’s affecting how you should approach the fantasy football position. As recently as five years ago, only three players were averaging more than 23.0 fantasy points per game in the six-point-per-pass TD rating, and that was pretty typical; Only three made it in 2016, and four in 2015.
That has changed in recent seasons. In 2020, 12 averaged at least 23 points per game, while the top four topped 29 points per game each; In 2021, the top three were all north of 26 points per game, while nine averaged 23.81 points per game or better. The bar for being a starting caliber fantasy quarterback is higher than ever, and your chances of finding a starting caliber fantasy QB late in the drafts are therefore reduced.
Of the nine who averaged 23.81 points per game or more in 2021, they were all drafted in the top 13 quarterbacks based on average draft position from last season’s NFFC drafts. Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston were the only quarterbacks drafted outside of the top 13 at that position, averaging 20 points per game. So if you didn’t make a QB early, you were left behind.
Of course, many quarterbacks are fascinating enough that you don’t necessarily have to to have designing one earlier this year. Just be aware that recent history suggests that you are taking a risk by waiting for the position. And considering how good the high-end options have been of late, it’s a risk that could set you back more than you think.
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Here are my updated rankings for QB for the 2022 season:
- Josh Allen
- Patrick Mahomes
- Lamar Jackson
- JustinHerbert
- Jalen hurts
- Kyler Murray
- Tom Brady
- Matthew Stafford
- Dak Prescott
- Joe Burrow
- Russell Wilson
- Aaron Rodgers
- Kirk cousins
- Deshaun Watson
- Justin Fields
- Derek Carr
- Trey Lance
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Ryan Tannehill
- James Winston
- Markus Mariota
- Daniel Jones
- Mitch Trubisky
- Trevor Lawrence
- MacJones
- Carson Wentz
- Jared Goff
- Zach Wilson
- Sam Darnold
- Matt Ryan
- Davis Mills
- Drew Lock
And here are some of my thoughts on where the position stands this offseason:
- I think there are a few different ranks at the QB position this season – one between Nos. 4 and 5, another between Nos. 8 and 9 and another that could go all the way up to No. 17. That said, either I’ll take one of the top four, one of the next three, or I’ll probably wait and take two of my spots 8th through 16th as late as possible. You can think of the tiers like this: the first tier gives players the best chance of reaching the 30 points-per-game mark in TD leagues with six points-per-game, which make the real difference; The second tier probably doesn’t have the 30 PPG advantage (although Hurts and Murray could get there thanks to their dual threat skills), but they seem like good bets for 25; The third level is a combination of high upside (Watson, Fields, Lance) with pocket passer types with higher floors.
- Allen seems likely to be the No. 1 consensus QB this season, and he will be that for me. It’s about both the leap Allen has made over the past few seasons, concerns about Mahomes stemming from the loss of Tyreek Hill and the issues he faced when he lost the Deep last season ball completed. It’s still Patrick Mahomes and it’s still an Andy Reid-led offense so I can’t rate him too low, but teams took away deep ball and it made Mahomes look mortal last season. Perhaps the combination of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling can help offset Hill’s loss and Mahomes’ ceiling stays as high as everyone else weekly and yearly, but Allens is right there and he seems safer.
- I give Jackson the benefit of the doubt after a couple of somewhat disappointing seasons since his MVP in 2019 – his combination of high-volume rushing and an increase in passing volume encapsulates his advantages with Allen and Mahomes. I don’t begrudge anyone who wants to put Herbert over Jackson – he was pretty great his first two seasons – but I think in their respective best-case scenarios, Jackson is the better player. If Herbert unlocks more rushing potential — if he could have an eight touchdown season after combining that many in his first two — this is the way to unlock that 30-points-a-game advantage.
- Hurts and Murray have both shown they make the difference, but not consistently enough. The addition of AJ Brown gives Hurt’s No. 1 QB an overall advantage, Heath Cummings wrote, if he can maintain his 800-yard, 10-touchdown rushing production from last season with a jump as a passer. I expect the Brown acquisition means we’ll see more throws from the Eagles, and Brown’s after-the-catch ability should be a boon on offense. If he surpasses the 3,500-yard mark and pushes for 30 touchdowns, Hurts will be in contention for top QB spot.
- I guess I won’t have Burrow on too many of my teams. I can see him becoming an elite fantasy QB, but he probably won’t repeat last year’s efficiency — he averaged 8.9 yards per attempt with a 6.5% touchdown rate, two stats, which no player has achieved in several seasons. Burrow probably doesn’t have much advantage as a rusher, so either he has to be an Aaron Rodgers-like efficiency runaway or the Bengals have to pass more. They’ve thrown more down the stretch of their Super Bowl run, but after having eight touchdowns in his last two games of the regular season, Burrow only had five in four playoff games, so I’m not quite ready to assume he’s ready for that is making that jump. I would rather go with Stafford or Wilson at probably cheaper cost.
- When waiting to take my QB, I like the idea of taking a flyer on top of Fields or Lance while pairing them up with the likes of Carr or Cousins. There’s a good chance neither Lance nor Fields are reliable weekly starters, but Carr or Cousins are probably good enough to pull through – Carr might be more than good enough if Davante Adams helps him step up to do in front. Preferably, I’d wait until I’m in a league with a QB outside the top-100 to take it on.
- It’s possible that I grossly underestimate Watson, who would be a top 6 QB if I knew he would play 17 games. But I do expect a suspension this season as a result of the NFL investigation into sexual assault claims against him. Hopefully we’ll know his status when draft season really gets underway, but with a possible suspension hanging over him, you can’t pay full price.
